Affichage des archives de dimanche, 17 juillet 2005

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jul 17 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 198 publié à 2200Z le 17 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z

Activity was at low levels today. Region 790 (S10W93) produced the largest flare during the period, a very impulsive C4 flare which occurred at 17/0629Z. This region also produced multiple B-class flares as it began rotating beyond the solar west limb. Spotless Region 789 (N17W86) was responsible for producing several B-class flares today. A back-sided full halo CME, which is believed to be from old Region 786 (N12 L=056), was first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 17/1130Z. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak transient signature (likely from the X1 related CME activity seen on 14 July) was detected at the ACE spacecraft near 17/0000Z where the wind speeds increased from near 425 km/sec to 500 km/sec. Minor storming was later observed between 17/0900 and 1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, and underwent an injection of flux at 17/1735Z allowing for the event to remain in-progress at near 17 pfu at the time of this writing. The source believed responsible for the increase in proton flux was the back-sided activity relating to the full halo CME mentioned in 1A.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on 18 and 19 July. A recurrent high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective 20 July with active to minor storming expected and isolated major storm conditions possible. The greater than 10 proton event is expected to end on 18 July.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
Classe M15%05%01%
Classe X01%01%01%
Proton99%15%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       17 Jul 074
  Prévisionnel   18 Jul-20 Jul  075/075/075
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        17 Jul 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 16 Jul  010/009
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 17 Jul  010/020
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul  005/015-008/012-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif15%20%35%
Tempête mineure05%05%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%15%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif35%30%40%
Tempête mineure20%15%35%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%15%

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