Affichage des archives de jeudi, 14 juillet 2005

Rapport d'activité solaire

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jul 14 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 195 publié à 2200Z le 14 Jul 2005

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels this period. Region 786 (N12W97) continues to be very active as it rotates around the west limb. Two major events occurred from this region today. The first was an M9 x-ray event with a 220 sfu Tenflare at 14/0725Z. A CME was observed on LASCO imagery in association with this event. A considerably more powerful, long duration X1 proton flare occurred at 14/1055Z. Strong radio emissions accompanied this flare including a 3400 sfu Tenflare, a 120,000 sfu burst at 610 MHz, and a Type IV radio sweep. A very bright and fast (approximately 1430 km/s) halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery. The remainder of the solar disk and limb was quiet.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, although there is still a chance for another major flare from Region 786 as it rotates around the west limb. Low to very low conditions are expected on 16 and 17 July.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s, but is declining. The most disturbed geomagnetic periods occurred between 14/0100 - 1300Z when the IMF Bz was predominantly southward. A slow, gradual rise in the greater than 10 MeV protons began soon after yesterday's M5 event. The 10 pfu alert threshold was finally reached at 14/0245Z. A second, larger influx of high energy protons followed today's X1 flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux were still slowly increasing at issue time, and the peak flux so far is 53 pfu at 14/1905Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days. Occasional major storm periods are possible at high latitudes. At least three CMEs from the M1, M5, and X1 events on 12, 13, and 14 July respectively, are expected to generate the storm periods. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress is expected to continue through 15 July. Assuming no new injection of particles, this event will likely end by 16 July.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Jul au 17 Jul
Classe M50%20%10%
Classe X10%01%01%
Proton20%10%05%
PCAFIn Progress
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       14 Jul 090
  Prévisionnel   15 Jul-17 Jul  085/080/080
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        14 Jul 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 13 Jul  020/030
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 14 Jul  010/015
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul  025/025-025/025-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Jul au 17 Jul
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif50%50%40%
Tempête mineure30%30%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif45%45%40%
Tempête mineure35%35%25%
Tempête majeure/sévère20%20%10%

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