Affichage des archives de dimanche, 10 juillet 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jul 10 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 191 publié à 2200Z le 10 Jul 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N10W43)
produced an M2 flare at 09/2206 UTC with an associated full halo CME
observed in LASCO imagery. Region 783 (S03W88) produced a C9 flare
at 10/1516 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (869 km/s).
No LASCO imagery of this event was available at the time of issue.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 786 may produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels. A
transient shock from the CME activity on 07 July was observed by ACE
at approximately 10/0300 UTC. Following the shock, there was a
period of sustained southward Bz resulting in major storming in the
period from 1200 to 1500 UTC. There was a proton enhancement in the
greater than 10 MeV protons associated with the M2.8 flare on 09
July; however, proton levels remained under event thresholds.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated periods
of major storm conditions for 11 July due to the arrival of a
transient shock from the CME associated with the M2 flare on 09
July. Predominantly active conditions are expected on 12 July,
declining to mostly unsettled on 13 July.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Jul au 13 Jul
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 Jul 102 Prévisionnel 11 Jul-13 Jul 100/095/095 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 Jul 097
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 09 Jul 013/019 Estimé Afr/Ap 10 Jul 028/045 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 025/050-020/025-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Jul au 13 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 15% | 10% |
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