Affichage des archives de jeudi, 16 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 16 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 167 publié à 2200Z le 16 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 775 (N10W86)
produced an M4.0 flare at 16/2022 UTC with associated Type II (989
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A 170 sfu Tenflare and a CME were
also associated with this event. Region 775 also produced a long
duration C1.7 flare at 16/0905 UTC. Region 779 (S17W05) continues
to show growth, but is developing more slowly.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for another M-class flare from Region 775
as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.
Transient material associated with the CME activity on 14 June
impacted the ACE spacecraft at approximately 16/0830 UTC. A
short-lived period of southward IMF Bz to near -16 nT resulted in a
major storm from 0900 to 1200 UTC. A greater than 10 and greater
than 100 MeV proton enhancement began following today's M4 flare. At
the time of issue, the protons were slowly rising, but had not yet
reached event thresholds. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with isolated minor storming on 17 June due to
the CME activity on 14 June. Conditions should decrease to
predominantly unsettled on 18 June, with quiet to unsettled
conditions expected on 19 June. The greater than 10 and greater than
100 MeV protons are expected to exceed event thresholds early in the
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Jun au 19 Jun
| Classe M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 20% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Jun 098 Prévisionnel 17 Jun-19 Jun 095/095/090 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Jun 014/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Jun 018/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 018/025-010/015-005/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Jun au 19 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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