Affichage des archives de dimanche, 12 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 12 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 163 publié à 2200Z le 12 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 775 (N10W32)
produced two C-class flares, a C3.5/Sf at 0236 UTC and a C3.0/Sf at
1609 UTC. Both flares were long duration events. No significant
development was observed from the regions on the active disk, and no
new regions were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low,
with a slight chance of M-class activity from Region 775.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A minor
transient was observed at ACE at 0650 UTC, followed by an increase
in solar wind speed from 300 km/s to around 500 km/s. Subsequent
active conditions were observed. At 1600 UTC Bz began a period of
consistently southward orientation of -15 nT, which continued to the
time of this report and led to minor storming late in the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Continued southward
Bz observed late on 12 June will likely result in minor and isolated
major storming early on 13 June. Activity should subside late on 13
June. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 14 and 15 June,
with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Jun au 15 Jun
| Classe M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Jun 103 Prévisionnel 13 Jun-15 Jun 105/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Jun 094
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/006 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Jun 015/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/025-008/020-006/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Jun au 15 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 05% | 05% |
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