Affichage des archives de dimanche, 5 juin 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jun 05 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 156 publié à 2200Z le 05 Jun 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
three C-class events. The first was a C2 at 2225 UTC from newly
numbered Region 776 (S05E71). The second was a C1/Sf at 0328 UTC
from Region 772 (S18W18), and the third was a C3 at 1350 UTC from
Region 776. Region 776 rotated into view today as a moderate-sized
D-type group and was the most active region on the disk. Region 772
(S18W18) appears to have become less complex during the past 24
hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated M-class event
from 772 or 776 during the next three days (06-08 June).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind data indicate the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal
hole, beginning at about 2300 UTC. The high speed stream resulted in
increased geomagnetic activity and led to a single, minor storm
interval from 0600-0900 UTC. Conditions have been quiet to unsettled
since 0900 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next two days (06-07 June), due to persistence
of the high speed stream and due to possible effects from the recent
eruptive solar events of 03/0411 UTC (M1/CME) and 03/2355 UTC
(C6/Type II/Type IV). Predominantly unsettled levels are expected
for the third day (08 June).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 Jun au 08 Jun
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 Jun 105 Prévisionnel 06 Jun-08 Jun 110/110/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 Jun 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 04 Jun 012/018 Estimé Afr/Ap 05 Jun 015/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 015/020-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 Jun au 08 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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