Affichage des archives de samedi, 28 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 28 2210 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 148 publié à 2200Z le 28 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 767 (S08W16) was
responsible for two C-class flares. The largest was a C5 flare at
28/0230 UTC. Growth in this region has slowed over the summary
period. At 28/1726 UTC a C1 flare was produced by a region behind
the east limb at approximately S08.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767, still has the potential to produce low
level M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods are due to
the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. At
approximately 28/0330 UTC a Co-rotating Interaction Region (CIR) was
observed at ACE preceding the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar
wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 275 km/s to 550 km/s
by the end of the summary period. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit was high again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels with isolated major
storm conditions at higher latitudes on 29 May. Heightened activity
is due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed stream,
and the influence of the CMEs from Region 767 observed on 26 May.
Activity will diminish to quiet to unsettled levels by 31 May.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 May au 31 May
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 May 092 Prévisionnel 29 May-31 May 095/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 May 092
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 May 001/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 May 012/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 020/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 May au 31 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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