Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 27 2220 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 147 publié à 2200Z le 27 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 767 (S08W02)
produced an M1/2f and associated tenflare at 27/1230 UTC. This
region also produced a C8 flare at 26/2139 UTC. A type IV radio
sweep was associated with this C8 event and a faint CME was observed
on LASCO imagery. Region 767 continues to develop in both size and
magnetic complexity, and is now nearing 400 millionths of white
light area.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 767 has the potential for further M-class
activity. Old Region 758 (S10, L=139), a large and moderately
complex region during its last rotation, is due to rotate onto the
visible disk on 28 May.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 26-2100Z au 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to minor storming. A recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into geoeffective
position on 28 May. The most disturbed periods will likely occur on
29 and 30 May as the recent CMEs from Region 767 are expected to
impact the geomagnetic field.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 28 May au 30 May
| Classe M | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 27 May 096 Prévisionnel 28 May-30 May 100/105/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 27 May 091
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 26 May 001/004 Estimé Afr/Ap 27 May 005/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 015/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 28 May au 30 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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