Affichage des archives de dimanche, 15 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 15 2230 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 135 publié à 2200Z le 15 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several low level C-flares
were produced by Regions 758 (S10 on the west limb) and 763
(S15E16). Region 759 (N11W20) has decayed slightly over the past 24
hours. A CME off the west limb with a speed of approximately 580
km/s was seen on LASCO imagery at 14/2122 UTC associated with a long
duration C2.8 which occurred at 14/2058 UTC from Region 758. At the
time of issue, the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at 3.4 PFU as of 15/2135 UTC.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 759 is still capable of producing an
M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 14-2100Z au 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. The
arrival of a CME from 13 May initiated the disturbance which caused
severe storming conditions between 15/0600 UTC and 0900 UTC. Solar
wind speed at ACE increased from approximately 200 km/s to 950 km/s.
Solar wind speed has declined to approximately 750 km/s by the end
of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on 16 May. On 17
May, a possible glancing blow from the 14 May CME along with a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream are expected to become
geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 18 May.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 16 May au 18 May
| Classe M | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 15 May 103 Prévisionnel 16 May-18 May 100/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 15 May 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 14 May 004/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 15 May 075/100 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May 020/040-012/015-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 16 May au 18 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 25% | 05% | 01% |
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