Affichage des archives de samedi, 14 mai 2005
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 May 15 0020 UTC# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 134 publié à 2200Z le 14 May 2005IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 758 (S10E90) has
now rotated off the visible limb, and Region 759 (N11W07) has
continued to produce several C-class events. The greater than 10
MeV solar particle flux at the time of this report had reached a
maximum of 338 PFU on 14 May at 1945Z, and remains high.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 759 continues to have a high potential for M-class
activity, and slight chance for further proton-producing flare
activity. The current energetic proton flux is expected to remain
elevated through 16 May.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels from 15 through 16
May, with a slight chance of an isolated period of major storm
levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at 1657Z, produced a
significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection. The shock is
expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain geoeffective through
the 16th.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 May au 17 May
| Classe M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 May 100 Prévisionnel 15 May-17 May 100/100/100 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 May 093
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 May 021/027 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 May 010/009 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 045/060-040/045-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 May au 17 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 50% | 45% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 35% | 25% | 05% |
Dernières nouvelles
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
jeudi, 22 février 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Forum
GONG Farside Images added to the SWL site? 3Unspecified geomagnetic activity 903Changelog/Featurelog 152Growth of Cycle 25 416Imagery from Total Solar Eclipse 08/04/2024 5
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 19/04/2024 | M2.1 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 16/04/2024 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |