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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2005 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 020 publié à 2200Z le 20 Jan 2005

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 720 (N14W70) produced an X7/2b flare at 0701 UTC, which was accompanied by Type II and Type IV radio sweeps. There is one image from the LASCO C2 coronagraph which shows an associated CME off the northwest limb at 0654 UTC. However, shortly after this observation the coronagraph data became difficult to use due to high levels of energetic particles. Region 720 continues to be large, with a sheared magnetic delta configuration along an east-west polarity inversion line.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 720 continues to have potential for producing an additional major flare. The location of Region 720 on the disk also implies that there is a fair chance for more energetic particles in association with future major flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds were elevated (700-900 km/s) from the start of the interval up through at least 0700 UTC, after which the ACE real-time SWEPAM data became unusable due to elevated energetic particle flux. The interplanetary magnetic field, however, was weak with fluctuations between -4 nT to +6 nT. A new injection of protons was observed at 0650 UTC in association with the X7 flare. The greater than 100 MeV protons rose rapidly and attained a maximum of 652 PFU at 0710 UTC. The 100 MeV flux has been declining steadily since then. This high flux level makes this the largest greater than 100 MeV proton event observed since October 1989. A greater than 10 MeV proton event was in progress at the time of the new injection, but the new particles quickly increased the flux from initial values around 40 PFU to a peak value in the past 24 hours of 1860 PFU at 0810 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active for the next three days. Today's CME (associated with the X7 flare) is not expected to produce anything more than a glancing blow due to its direction away from the Sun-Earth line. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to remain above event threshold for at least another 24 hours.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Jan au 23 Jan
Classe M90%90%80%
Classe X30%30%20%
Proton99%80%50%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       20 Jan 123
  Prévisionnel   21 Jan-23 Jan  115/105/095
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        20 Jan 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 19 Jan  031/062
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  012/015
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  015/025-015/020-010/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Jan au 23 Jan
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif35%35%20%
Tempête mineure20%20%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère15%15%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif35%35%20%
Tempête mineure20%20%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère15%15%10%

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