Affichage des archives de vendredi, 12 novembre 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Nov 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 317 publié à 2200Z le 12 Nov 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity dropped to very low levels. Region 696
(N08W87) is in decay and rotating quietly around the west limb. A
weak Type II radio sweep (553 km/s) followed a B7 flare in Region
699 (S14E27). A faint CME was observed off the SE limb, which was
not Earth directed. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Isolated C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
major storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to
the CME activity on 09 and 10 November. Solar wind speed ranged from
550 to over 700 km/s, but was trending down during the latter half
of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues. The
proton event began on 07/1910Z, following the X2 flare on 07/1606Z.
The peak was 495 pfu at 08/0115Z and the current flux is ranging
between 20 - 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 13 November. Predominantly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on 14 and 15 November. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event in progress now is expected to gradually
decline to below the event threshold on 13 November.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Nov au 15 Nov
| Classe M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Nov 097 Prévisionnel 13 Nov-15 Nov 090/090/095 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Nov 108
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Nov 022/023 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Nov 030/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 015/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Nov au 15 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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