Affichage des archives de mardi, 14 septembre 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Sep 14 2300 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 258 publié à 2200Z le 14 Sep 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 672 (N05E10)
produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M1.5/1f at 0930
UTC. A Type II radio sweep (1018 km/s) and a Type IV sweep was
observed in association with the M flare. An associated CME most
likely occurred, but could not be confirmed due to a LASCO data gap.
Surging and plage fluctuations were observed in Region 672, which is
now in a beta-delta magnetic configuration. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 672 is expected to produce C- class flares, and
may produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active. Lingering
effects of the CME which arrived on 13 September led to persistent
active conditions early in the period. The greater than 10 MeV
protons have been steadily delining since reaching a maximum of 273
pfu at 14/0005 UTC, and are currently at 17 pfu.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 15 September as the effects of
the current disturbance subside. A CME originating from the M1.5
flare observed today may interact with Earth's geomagnetic field
beginning midday on 16 September, and lasting through 17 September.
Predominantly active conditions, with isolated minor or major
storming, is likely on 16-17 September as a result of this CME
arrival. The greater than 10 MeV Proton levels may increase as well
in association with a CME shock arrival.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Sep au 17 Sep
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Sep 115 Prévisionnel 15 Sep-17 Sep 115/115/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Sep 112
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Sep 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Sep 020/030 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/015-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Sep au 17 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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