Affichage des archives de mercredi, 11 août 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Aug 11 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 224 publié à 2200Z le 11 Aug 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of
numerous C-class flares, predominantly from Region 656 (S13E03). The
largest event of the day was a C7/Sf from 656 at 1141 UTC. Region
656 continues to grow and is nearly 1000 millionths in area. The
group continues to have a magnetic delta classification. A slow,
faint CME was seen in LASCO off the south limb yesterday, beginning
at about 10/1854 UTC in C2 imagery. The CME was associated with
surge activity and a subsequent EIT wave that was observed just
north of 656 and east of central meridian.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. C-flares should continue and there is a good chance for
an isolated M-class event during the next three days. There is also
a slight chance for a major flare event from 656. Background levels
are expected to increase tomorrow with the return of old Region 652
(N07, Carrington = 347).
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 10-2100Z au 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Solar wind
data show the continuing influence of a high-speed coronal hole wind
stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for the next two days (12-13 August). Conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active on the 3rd day (14 August) with
the arrival of weak transient flow from yesterday's CME.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 12 Aug au 14 Aug
| Classe M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 11 Aug 131 Prévisionnel 12 Aug-14 Aug 140/145/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 11 Aug 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 11 Aug 012/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 010/010-010/010-015/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 12 Aug au 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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