Affichage des archives de lundi, 26 juillet 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jul 26 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 208 publié à 2200Z le 26 Jul 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 652 (N08W47)
produced two M-class flares - an M1/Sf at 26/0552Z, and an M1/2n at
26/1730Z. This region continues in a slow decay phase, but still
exceeds 1000 millionths of white light area coverage in a moderately
complex beta-gamma-delta configuration. Growth was observed in
newly numbered Region 654 (N07E38), but no activity of note has
occurred. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 652 will likely produce further M-class activity
and still maintains potential for a major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 25-2100Z au 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. The
severe geomagnetic storm that occurred yesterday, continued into the
early hours of this period. Major to severe geomagnetic storm
periods were observed through 26/0300Z. Solar wind speed remained
elevated from 500 to over 700 km/s, but IMF Bz was generally around
zero from 0300Z through the end of the period. Consequently, the
geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began yesterday at 25/1855Z, is still in
progress. The peak so far was 271 pfu at 26/1905Z. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. A full halo CME
was observed on LASCO imagery following yesterday's long duration M1
flare at 25/1514Z. This CME will likely impact the geomagnetic field
early on 27 July. Expect minor to major storm periods at all
latitudes and severe storm levels at high latitudes. The storm is
expected to end by 28 July. Mostly unsettled to active conditions
are expected on 28 July. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is
expected on 29 July with isolated high latitude active periods
possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton event in progress now will
likely end on 28 July.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 27 Jul au 29 Jul
| Classe M | 65% | 65% | 50% |
| Classe X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 26 Jul 128 Prévisionnel 27 Jul-29 Jul 125/120/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 26 Jul 105
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 25 Jul 064/122 Estimé Afr/Ap 26 Jul 020/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 060/055-025/030-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 27 Jul au 29 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 40% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 50% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 50% | 15% | 05% |
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