Affichage des archives de vendredi, 23 juillet 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jul 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 205 publié à 2200Z le 23 Jul 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 652 (N08W10)
produced a C1.0 flare at 23/1609 UTC, which would not be noteworthy
except that a full-halo CME was observed on LASCO imagery at the
same time, as well as a Type II radio sweep with a speed of 710
km/s. Analysis of SXI and EIT imagery indicate that the flare and
CME are probably associated. Region 652 also produced three M-class
flares over the period, the largest an M2.2/Sf at 23/1728 UTC. A
CME with a plane-of-sky speed of 700 km/s associated with this flare
was observed on LASCO imagery. Region 652 maintains its large size
and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 652 may still produce major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels from
the continued effects of CME transient activity. After maintaining
a mostly southward orientation for over 24 hours, Bz rotated
northward at 1600 UTC. ACE solar wind speed has steadily declined
to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active tomorrow (24 July) as the current
activity subsides. A CME observed on 22 July may produce active and
isolated minor storm conditions on 24 July. Activity should
decrease to unsettled levels on 25 July. CME activity associated
with today's C1 and M2 flares will likely impact Earth's geomagnetic
field on 26 July, with active to minor storm conditions possible.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Jul au 26 Jul
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Jul 165 Prévisionnel 24 Jul-26 Jul 160/160/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Jul 104
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Jul 013/019 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Jul 040/050 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 020/025-015/015-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Jul au 26 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 15% |
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