Affichage des archives de samedi, 17 juillet 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Jul 17 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 199 publié à 2200Z le 17 Jul 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 649 (S10E13)
continues to produce M and X-class flare activity. The largest
flare of the period was an X1/1f impulsive flare that occurred at
17/0757Z. Region 649 also produced an M2/1n event at 17/1651Z.
Minor radio bursts accompanied both flares. LASCO imagery shows
most of the CME plasma structure directed towards the eastern solar
hemisphere. Region 652 (N05E71) appears fairly ominous in white
light with 750 millionths of sunspot area. This region has produced
several C-class flares today and remains too close to the solar
eastern limb to determine accurate magnetic structure. Region 653
(S14E71) was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 16-2100Z au 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. ACE
data indicates that a shock passed the instrument at approximately
16/2100Z. This transient is believed to have been the result of the
weak signature, full halo CME activity seen on 13 July. Higher
latitudes experienced major storm conditions between 17/0000 and
0300Z.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. There is a chance
for isolated active to minor storm conditions with further transient
activity resulting from the multitude of major flares seen over the
past several days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 17 Jul 149 Prévisionnel 18 Jul-20 Jul 150/150/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 17 Jul 098
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 17 Jul 024/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 18 Jul au 20 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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