Affichage des archives de dimanche, 25 avril 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Apr 25 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 116 publié à 2200Z le 25 Apr 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 599 (N16E28)
produced an M2/1N flare today at 0537 UTC, as well as a number of
smaller, C-class events. The group continued to grow today, and
shows some magnetic complexity, particularly just behind the large
leader spot where smaller spots of opposite polarity are in close
proximity. Most of the flare brightenings occurred along an
east-west inversion line in the mid-to-trailing portion of the
region. Region 536 (S08W36) is still the largest group on the disk,
but was quiet and appears to be slowly decaying.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an additional, isolated
M-class event during the next three days from Region 599.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 24-2100Z au 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled. There was an isolated
active period at high latitudes from 0600-0900 UTC. Solar wind data
show continuation of a weak, high-speed stream, with velocities
ranging mostly between 500-550 km/s.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field should
persist at the current, mostly unsettled levels for the next 24-36
hours (26 April to partway through 27 April). A decrease is expected
to begin partway through the 2nd day (27 April) and quiet to
unsettled levels should prevail on the third day (28 April).
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 26 Apr au 28 Apr
| Classe M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 25 Apr 107 Prévisionnel 26 Apr-28 Apr 110/110/110 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 25 Apr 107
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 24 Apr 007/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 25 Apr 010/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 012/012-010/010-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 26 Apr au 28 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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