Affichage des archives de dimanche, 7 mars 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Mar 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 067 publié à 2200Z le 07 Mar 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 567 (S14W66) has
undergone a reduction in both magnetic complexity and size since
yesterday. It is now only 80 millionths of the solar disk, and has
been reclassified a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 570
(S14E59) is now in full view, and has reached a size of 570
millionths. Magnetic classification remains Beta for the region.
However, there continues to be a significant distance between the
leading and trailing sunspots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a chance for moderate. Region 570, and to a lesser
degree 567, continue to have a fair potential for an M-class flare
event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the 8th. The
field is expected to then jump to mostly unsettled with isolated
periods of active levels during the 9th and 10th. A high-speed
solar wind stream is approaching, and is expected to influence the
Earth's magnetic field beginning late on the 9th.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Mar au 10 Mar
| Classe M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Mar 106 Prévisionnel 08 Mar-10 Mar 110/115/115 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Mar 111
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Mar 003/005 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 005/008-012/025-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Mar au 10 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 45% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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