Affichage des archives de lundi, 2 février 2004
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2004 Feb 02 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 033 publié à 2200Z le 02 Feb 2004IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0759 UTC from Region 547 (S09W26),
and a C1 at 1124 UTC from a region very close to the east limb at
latitude N05. Region 547 and 549 (N14E42) are the largest groups on
the disk but are still relatively small and stable. Region 550
(S08W14) and Region 551 (S06E63) were assigned today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (2-4 February). There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-flare from Region 547 or Region 549.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 01-2100Z au 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
initially quiet to unsettled condition gave way to about six hours
of storming between 0600-1200 UTC. The storming was associated with
high speed solar wind and some moderately negative interplanetary
magnetic field component Bz (-5 to -10). The field has been mostly
active since 1200 UTC. The solar wind speed has shown a slowly
increasing trend since 0500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (3-4
February), and should decline to mostly unsettled with occasional
active periods for the third day (5 February). The enhanced activity
is expected from favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 03 Feb au 05 Feb
| Classe M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 02 Feb 102 Prévisionnel 03 Feb-05 Feb 105/105/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 02 Feb 120
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/011 Estimé Afr/Ap 02 Feb 025/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 03 Feb au 05 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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