Affichage des archives de jeudi, 20 novembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Nov 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 324 publié à 2200Z le 20 Nov 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 501 (N02W18)
produced an M9.6/2b flare at 20/0747 UTC with an associated Type IV
radio sweep and a 9700 pfu tenflare. This flare also produced a CME
with an estimated velocity of 700 km/s. Region 507 (N07E49)
produced a C8.6 at 20/1929 UTC. All regions on the disk were stable
in size. Two regions increased in complexity: Region 501 developed
into a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, and Region 508
(S20E58) developed into a Beta-Gamma configuration.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 501, 507 and 508 are capable of producing
major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. A
CME shock arrived at SOHO/MTOF and was observed at 20/0740 UTC, and
a geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 0805 UTC. A very
strong (55 nT) southward component of the interplanetary magnetic
field resulted in severe geomagnetic storming during the latter half
of the day. Magnetopause crossings were observed at both main GOES
satellites, at 1301 UTC for GOES 12 and at 1628 UTC for GOES 10.
The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit dropped
below high levels early in the day and have remained below
threshold. The M9 flare produced elevated 10 MeV proton levels at
geosynchronous orbit, but this activity did not cross event
thresholds.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active all three days, with major storm
conditions possible early on 21 November from the lingering effects
of the geomagnetic storm in progress. Minor storming is possible on
22-23 November from a CME shock arrival originating from the M9
flare observed earlier today.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Nov au 23 Nov
| Classe M | 70% | 75% | 80% |
| Classe X | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Nov 175 Prévisionnel 21 Nov-23 Nov 180/190/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Nov 128
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Nov 012/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Nov 105/115 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 040/045-025/035-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Nov au 23 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 25% | 15% |
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