Affichage des archives de vendredi, 24 octobre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Oct 24 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 297 publié à 2200Z le 24 Oct 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57)
produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an
associated Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME was observed on
SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although
the CME did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 484 (N05W15)
produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC. Region 484 appears to be decaying
slightly, while Region 486 is growing. Both regions continue to
exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations.
The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar
activity at the time of the measurement.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 23-2100Z au 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. An
interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a
subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC. The sudden impulse
was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm
activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12. Solar
wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about
30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due
to persistence from the current transient-driven activity. Activity
should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and
three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 25 Oct au 27 Oct
| Classe M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Classe X | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Proton | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 24 Oct 191 Prévisionnel 25 Oct-27 Oct 190/195/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 24 Oct 117
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/007 Estimé Afr/Ap 24 Oct 035/040 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 035/040-030/040-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 25 Oct au 27 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 40% | 40% | 30% |
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