Affichage des archives de lundi, 20 octobre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Oct 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 293 publié à 2200Z le 20 Oct 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity has been low to moderate. Region 484
(N06E41) has increased again to 1500 millionths with over 56
sunspots and a strong Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. It
has produced several C-class flares and a long-duration M-class
flare at 0722 UTC. Further analysis of a CME which occurred 18
October around 1830 UTC indicates that a faint portion was
Earth-directed.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There's a slight chance for another isolated X-class
flare and an even lesser chance of proton activity from Region 484.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to minor storm levels. Another
favorably positioned coronal hole is perpetuating the high speed
solar wind stream, and is continuing to keep the geomagnetic field
disturbed. The interplanetary magnetic field has settled to a low
value of around 8 nT, which is keeping the overall disturbance at a
maximum of minor storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for isolated periods of
minor storming during day two. On day three, the faintly
Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic field,
and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Oct au 23 Oct
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Oct 135 Prévisionnel 21 Oct-23 Oct 130/130/130 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Oct 115
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Oct 022/032 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Oct 020/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 025/030-015/020-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Oct au 23 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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