Affichage des archives de lundi, 22 septembre 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Sep 22 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 265 publié à 2200Z le 22 Sep 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 464 (N06E49) continues to be the largest group on the disk
and showed slow growth during the past 24 hours. The region's
magnetic structure is mostly bipolar, but there is some weak
polarity mixing in the central part of the group, giving it a
beta-gamma classification. New Region 465 (S02E50) was assigned
today and is stacked just below Region 464. New Region 466 (S04E72)
rotated into view today and appears to be a small, simple sunspot
group. A CME was observed at 21/2130 UTC in LASCO-C2 coronagraph
data and was centered very close to the solar north pole. The lack
of corresponding disk signatures suggest that this was a back-sided
event.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 464.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past
24 hours. There was an interval of quiet to unsettled level activity
from 21/2100 UTC through 22/0300 UTC, but conditions became
disturbed (unsettled to active) from 0300 UTC through the end of the
day. The activity is being driven by a continuing high speed solar
wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Conditions
should be predominantly unsettled by the third day as the high speed
wind stream is expected to be significantly reduced by that time.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 Sep au 25 Sep
| Classe M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 Sep 123 Prévisionnel 23 Sep-25 Sep 125/120/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 Sep 120
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 21 Sep 019/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 22 Sep 015/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 Sep au 25 Sep
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 20% |
Dernières nouvelles
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
jeudi, 22 février 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Forum
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 941Unproven theories 323Growth of Cycle 25 424GONG Farside Images added to the SWL site? 5Changelog/Featurelog 152
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 19/04/2024 | M1.0 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 19/04/2024 | Kp7 (G3) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |