Affichage des archives de lundi, 23 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 174 publié à 2200Z le 23 Jun 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from
Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03),
and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no
significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region
387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare
primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a
high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early
in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2
MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Jun au 26 Jun
Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Jun 114
Prévisionnel 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/115/115
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Jun 126
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Jun 011/016
Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Jun 020/020
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Jun au 26 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 35% | 35% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
Comments
K-indicies
The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.
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