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Affichage des archives de samedi, 21 juin 2003

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rotation Précédente Jour dernier Calendrier
Jour prochain Prochaine rotation
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 172 publié à 2200Z le 21 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 388 (S03W19) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.5/Sf that occurred at 21/1313Z along with many lesser flares during the interval. This region showed rapid growth during the period with a more than doubling of the penumbral coverage. Region 386 (S07E04) produced several lesser C-class flares today and has been in a steady decay phase since yesterday. The delta magnetic structure is still intact in the leading edge of the spot cluster. Region 387 (N18E23) was fairly quiescent today although it still depicts a beta-gamma magnetic complex. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 386, 387, and 388 all have the potential for producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Sustained periods of southward Bz along with elevated solar wind speeds led to the occasional storming conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions are possible throughout the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 Jun au 24 Jun
Classe M30%30%30%
Classe X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       21 Jun 115
  Prévisionnel   22 Jun-24 Jun  115/115/115
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        21 Jun 126
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/012
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  018/025
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  012/015-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 Jun au 24 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif25%35%25%
Tempête mineure10%20%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%05%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif35%35%30%
Tempête mineure20%20%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%
PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. 99999
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