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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 171 publié à 2200Z le 20 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region 386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387 (N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389 (S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to range from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Jun au 23 Jun
Classe M40%40%40%
Classe X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       20 Jun 117
  Prévisionnel   21 Jun-23 Jun  115/115/120
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        20 Jun 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 19 Jun  016/018
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/015
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun  010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Jun au 23 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif15%25%25%
Tempête mineure05%05%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère01%01%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif30%30%40%
Tempête mineure15%15%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère05%05%05%
99999 PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. 99999

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