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Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 169 publié à 2200Z le 18 Jun 2003

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region 386 (S07E43) produced an M6.8 x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) at 17/2255Z that had an associated Tenflare (2100 sfu), Type IV and Type II radio sweeps (an estimated shock velocity of 1000 km/sec). This region showed growth in the magnetic structure surrounding the dominant lead spot as a delta complex has become evident since yesterday. The penumbral field coverage has changed little over the period. Newly numbered Region 387 (N18E62) produced several minor flares during the interval.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 386 has the potential to produce an isolated major flare.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 17-2100Z au 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly minor to major storm levels with an isolated period of severe storm conditions seen at high latitudes between 18/0600 and 0900Z. A co-rotating integrated region preceding a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream and is believed to responsible for the storm conditions. The greater than 10 Mev proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached event threshold at 18/2050Z and due to the recent activity the exact source for this particle event is not certain.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Isolated major storm conditions are possible on day one due to the potential for transient activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event should remain above threshold level through the first day of the interval.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 19 Jun au 21 Jun
Classe M60%60%60%
Classe X20%20%20%
Proton99%50%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       18 Jun 120
  Prévisionnel   19 Jun-21 Jun  120/120/120
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        18 Jun 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 17 Jun  030/050
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  035/050
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  025/035-020/025-020/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 19 Jun au 21 Jun
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif40%50%50%
Tempête mineure30%20%20%
Tempête majeure/sévère15%05%05%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif40%50%50%
Tempête mineure40%30%30%
Tempête majeure/sévère20%10%10%
VII. PLAIN To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) will become the primary satellite for protons. The transition from GOES 8 to GOES 11 was scheduled for 18 June, but has been delayed until 19 June. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. MAGNETOMETER On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June.

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