Affichage des archives de jeudi, 5 juin 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Jun 05 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 156 publié à 2200Z le 05 Jun 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
today: a C2 at 1019 UT from Region 377 (N05E57), and a C1 at 1734 UT
from Region 375 (N12E24). There was also a CME that erupted behind
the southwest limb which first became visible in the SOHO/LASCO C2
coronagraph at 2006 UT. There was a Type II radio sweep associated
with this CME. Region 375 dominates the disk in size and complexity,
and shows mixed magnetic polarities as well as an east-west
inversion line which could build up magnetic shear. However, there
is no indication of emerging flux in the region at this time.
New region number 378 (N16E69) was assigned to a small, C-type group
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime over the next three days. Region 375 is considered to be
the most likely source for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 04-2100Z au 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed observations show a steady decline from
values around 800 km/s at the start of the period to values around
500 km/s by the end of the period. A decline in temperature was also
seen, suggesting that the Earth is moving into normal, ambient solar
wind flow. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high
levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled, with a chance for some isolated
active periods, during the next 24 to 36 hours. Another coronal hole
will move into favorable position sometime in the next 36 to 48
hours, and conditions are expected to increase to active, most
likely beginning late on the second day and lasting through the
third day.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 06 Jun au 08 Jun
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 05 Jun 114 Prévisionnel 06 Jun-08 Jun 115/118/120 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 05 Jun 123
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 04 Jun 013/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 05 Jun 010/013 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 06 Jun-08 Jun 015/015-015/020-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 06 Jun au 08 Jun
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 20% |
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