Affichage des archives de mercredi, 28 mai 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 May 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 148 publié à 2200Z le 28 May 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
365 (S07W32) produced two X-class flares early in the period. The
first was an X1.3/2b flare that occurred at 27/2307Z with an
associated Tenflare (910 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated shock
velocity of 607 km/s.) radio sweep. The second, larger flare, an
X3.6 x-ray event which occurred at 28/0027Z that also had an
associated Tenflare (1600 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated 392
km/s.) radio sweep. Both flares had associated CME's (based on
LASCO imagery) that appear to be Earth directed. This region
continues to show good growth and remains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic complex. Little activity was noted from the rest of the
disk. Region 374 (S22W59) was newly assigned today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 365 is very capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
recurrent high speed stream coronal hole is responsible for the
elevated levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes have been
just under event threshold levels for the past several hours of this
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels through
the forecast period. Transient activity from today's X-flares is
expected by day two of the interval with resulting major to severe
storm conditions possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit may reach threshold levels on day one of the
period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 May au 31 May
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 80% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 May 130 Prévisionnel 29 May-31 May 135/140/135 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 May 125
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 May 018/026 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 May 025/038 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 025/025-040/050-015/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 May au 31 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 35% | 20% |
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