Affichage des archives de lundi, 28 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 118 publié à 2200Z le 28 Apr 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels today. Region
337 (S14W53) produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.4/Sf
event occurring at 28/0436Z. There was little change to the
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity noted during the period.
Region 338 (N18W98) has rotated beyond the west limb, although it
did manage to trigger several lesser C-class flares throughout the
day. Region 344 (N16W14) produced the second largest flare of the
interval, a C3.3/Sf occurring at 28/1815Z. This region maintains a
very weak delta complex and magnetically appears to be showing
slight decay. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A very
weak signature from the NASA/ACE data indicate a transient may have
passed around 28/1200Z although the elevated geomagnetic conditions
are believed to be from a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have again reached
high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active for days one and
two of the period as the current coronal hole begins to wane. Minor
storm conditions may occur on day three due to the onset of another
favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Apr au 01 May
| Classe M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Apr 152 Prévisionnel 29 Apr-01 May 150/150/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Apr 127
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Apr 011/015 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Apr 012/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Apr-01 May 012/015-012/015-015/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Apr au 01 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 15% |
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