Affichage des archives de lundi, 7 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 097 publié à 2200Z le 07 Apr 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 324 (S13W85)
produced a C2 flare at 07/0304Z. Region 324 was to be the source of
the majority of activity during the past twenty-four hours. Region
324 continues to simplify and decay as it transits the west limb.
Region 325 (N15W63) and Region 331 (S07W34) are the two largest
regions on the disk but are relatively unchanged since yesterday.
New Region 332 (N11E58) was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 324, 325, and 330 (N07E38) continue to
represent C-class potential with a slight chance of a minor M-class
event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Greater than
2 MeV electrons at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions. A weak CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April is
expected to arrive late today or early on day one. A returning
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to produce unsettled to
isolated minor storm levels on day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Apr au 10 Apr
Classe M | 20% | 20% | 15% |
Classe X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Apr 116
Prévisionnel 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/105/100
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Apr 134
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Apr 006/009
Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Apr 007/008
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 015/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Apr au 10 Apr
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 30% | 20% | 30% |
Tempête mineure | 10% | 05% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 30% | 25% | 40% |
Tempête mineure | 15% | 10% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 03% | 07% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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