Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 avril 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Apr 04 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.comRapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 094 publié à 2200Z le 04 Apr 2003
IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
Solar activity was low to moderate. Along with several
C-class flare events, Region 324 (S08W40) produced a significant
long-duration M1.9 flare at 2019 UTC. Several regions including
324, 321 (N08W68), and 323 (S07W87) continue to show considerable
low-level activity.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next two days, dropping off to low when Region 324
(S11W40) makes its way off the visible disk.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at low to active levels with periods
of minor storming due to the continued influence of a high-speed
solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of
active conditions during the next 24 hours. The waning high-speed
stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to quiet levels with
isolated periods of unsettled on the second and third days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Apr au 07 Apr
Classe M | 45% | 35% | 25% |
Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
PCAF | green
|
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Apr 153
Prévisionnel 05 Apr-07 Apr 155/150/145
Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Apr 135
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Apr 011/014
Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Apr 024/026
Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 015/020-012/015-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Apr au 07 Apr
A. Latitudes moyennes |
Actif | 40% | 40% | 35% |
Tempête mineure | 20% | 15% | 10% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 05% |
B. Hautes latitudes |
Actif | 55% | 45% | 40% |
Tempête mineure | 30% | 15% | 15% |
Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 10% |
VII. Comments: Beginning 1500 UTC April 8, SEC will begin using data from the GOES 12 satellite, and stop receiving GOES 8 data. GOES 12 has the new Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI), which will acquire real-time, operational images of the solar x-ray flux. With the switch from GOES 8 to GOES 12, the primary/secondary designations will change. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for the SXI. All other data, including magnetometer, XRS x-ray measurements, and energetic particles, will have GOES 10 as their primary source, with GOES 12 as the secondary source where available. Please see http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html for important information on this changeover.
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