Affichage des archives de dimanche, 23 mars 2003
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 082 publié à 2200Z le 23 Mar 2003IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318
(S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting
filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a
C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar
X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm
levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by
frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to -
6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance
for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase
to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Mar au 26 Mar
| Classe M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Mar 093 Prévisionnel 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/100/105 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Mar 133
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/016 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Mar 020/025 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Mar au 26 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 20% |
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