Affichage des archives de mercredi, 20 novembre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Nov 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 324 publié à 2200Z le 20 Nov 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC.
Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal
spot coverage remained unchanged. The trailing most spots are all
that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it
transits the west limb. There was no flare activity recorded from
this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the
H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region. The
remaining regions were quiescent during the period. Regions 199
(N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. NASA/ACE
depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at
approximately 20/1000 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600
UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all
latitudes.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions,
through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed
stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm
conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence,
especially at high latitudes.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Nov au 23 Nov
| Classe M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Nov 159 Prévisionnel 21 Nov-23 Nov 155/150/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Nov 174
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Nov 012/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 015/018-015/020-015/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Nov au 23 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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