Affichage des archives de vendredi, 4 octobre 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Oct 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 277 publié à 2200Z le 04 Oct 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity reached high levels. A total of five
M-class flares were observed this period. Region 137 (S19W20) was
the primary source for this activity, producing four M-class flares,
the largest being an M4/1n at 04/0538Z. A delta configuration was
observed to develop in this region late yesterday, and the region
exhibited frequent flare activity since. Region 139 appears to be
growing quickly as it rotates into view. This region produced an
M1/1f flare with associated Type II sweep (357 km/s) at 04/1255Z,
and also produced several moderate C-class flares. A delta
configuration is obvious and white light areal coverage is nearing
500 millionths. New Region 140 (S07E76) was numbered today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Complex Regions 137 and 139 will continue
to produce M-class activity, with increasing likelihood for a major
flare from Region 139 as it continues to develop.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly active to major storm
levels with an isolated severe storm period between 04/00 - 03Z.
Though solar wind speed remains below 450 km/s, the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field was sustained southward for the
entire period, ranging from -2 to -12 nT. The storm was gradually
subsiding by the end of the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to minor storm levels with isolated
major storm periods possible. Transient effects from CMEs observed
early on 3 Oct and again on 4 Oct will likely enhance the disturbed
periods on days two and three. A large, recurrent southern coronal
hole will move into geoeffective position late on day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Oct au 07 Oct
| Classe M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Oct 158 Prévisionnel 05 Oct-07 Oct 160/170/180 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Oct 179
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Oct 022/033 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Oct 035/045 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 018/020-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Oct au 07 Oct
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tempête mineure | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 20% | 20% |
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