Affichage des archives de mercredi, 14 août 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Aug 14 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 226 publié à 2200Z le 14 Aug 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 61
(N08W69) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 14/0212 UTC
associated with a Type II radio sweep, partial-halo CME, and a solar
proton event. Region 61 had been in a state of gradual decay for the
last several days. Region 67 (N11E20) produced an M1/1f flare at
14/1815 UTC as well as a few C-class flares. It was in a growth
phase during the period. Region 69 (S08E37) produced isolated
C-class flares as it continued to gradually increase in area, which
now exceeds 1500 millionths of the solar disk. Region 66 (N13E03)
produced isolated C-class flares as it grew at a gradual pace. New
Regions 78 (S13W12), 79 (S20E55), and 80 (N16E69) were numbered
today.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares are possible through
the period. There is a slight chance for a major flare from Region
69.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during
most of the period, with brief active periods detected at high
latitudes. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at
geo-synchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC and reached a preliminary
maximum of 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geo-synchronous orbit increased to moderate to high levels
during the period.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to begin during the latter half of 15 August and continue
into 16 August following today's long-duration M2/partail-halo CME
event. Active to minor storm conditions are expected during this
disturbance. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 17 August. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to end sometime during the first half of the forecast
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at
moderate to high levels during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Aug au 17 Aug
| Classe M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 90% | 75% | 40% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 14 Aug 208 Prévisionnel 15 Aug-17 Aug 210/215/215 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 14 Aug 165
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/013 Estimé Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-025/030-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Aug au 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 35% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 20% | 01% |
Dernières nouvelles
samedi, 23 mars 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
mercredi, 20 mars 2024
Sunspot region 3615, G1 watch
jeudi, 22 février 2024
X6.3 solar flare
Forum
GONG Farside Images added to the SWL site? 3Unspecified geomagnetic activity 903Changelog/Featurelog 152Growth of Cycle 25 416Imagery from Total Solar Eclipse 08/04/2024 5
Plus de messages du forumAidez SpaceWeatherLive.com !
Vous êtes de plus en plus nombreux à consulter SpaceWeatherLive pour suivre l'activité solaire ou aurorale, et avec le traffic les coûts du serveur augmentent. Si vous appréciez SpaceWeatherLive, soutenez notre projet en faisant un don afin que nous puissions continuer à vous informer !
La Météo Spatiale en faits
| Dernière classe X | 28/03/2024 | X1.1 |
| Dernière classe M | 19/04/2024 | M2.1 |
| Dernier orage géomagnétique | 16/04/2024 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Jours sans taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| Dernier jour sans taches solaires | 08/06/2022 |
| Nombre mensuel moyen de taches solaires | |
|---|---|
| mars 2024 | 104.9 -19.8 |