Affichage des archives de samedi, 10 août 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Aug 10 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 222 publié à 2200Z le 10 Aug 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. No optical reports were
received for the minor C-class flare activity observed throughout
the period. However, a large filament located near central meridian
at about N30 appeared to dissipate early in the period, in
association with a subsequent CME evident in LASCO C2 imagery at
about 09/2330 UTC. This CME appears directed largely north of the
ecliptic. Two new regions rotated into view on the east limb and
were numbered today: Region 67 (N09E71) and Region 68 (S07E71).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low. Region 61 (N08W15) is still a moderately large
region which could produce isolated M-class activity during the
period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 09-2100Z au 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels early in
the period, then at quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder.
The isolated minor storm period was observed at higher latitudes
during 10/0300-0600 UTC, in probable association with a sustained
period of southward Bz during that time.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first day of the
forecast period. Isolated active periods are possible on day two
and three, due to expected coronal hole effects, or possibly some
flanking shock passage effects from the CME activity described in
section 1A above.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 11 Aug au 13 Aug
| Classe M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Classe X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 10 Aug 148 Prévisionnel 11 Aug-13 Aug 145/150/150 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 10 Aug 164
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 09 Aug 009/015 Estimé Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/010-012/012-015/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 11 Aug au 13 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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