Affichage des archives de dimanche, 4 août 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Aug 04 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 216 publié à 2200Z le 04 Aug 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z Solar activity was high due to a long duration M6 x-ray
event at 0955 UTC. The event was associated with activity behind the
southwest limb in cotemporaneous solar image data. A faint CME could
be seen in LASCO images associated with the flare with an
approximate plane-of-sky speed of 500 km/s. The CME does not appear
to have any earthward component. The remainder of today's solar
activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. With the departure
of Regions 39, 44, and 50, Region 57 is now the dominant sunspot
group on the disk. Region 57 has shown growth over the past 24 hours
and possesses some magnetic complexity. The group produced
occasional subflare activity.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly moderate over the next three days. There is a very slight
chance, however, that one of the regions behind west limb could
produce another major flare or proton producing event. Of the
regions on the disk, Region 57 shows the best potential for
producing an M-class event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 03-2100Z au 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A
period of moderately negative Bz in the solar wind occurred from
about 2300-0300 UTC and led to active to minor storm conditions from
0000-0900 UTC. The source of the enhanced Bz is uncertain, but may
be related to a solar sector boundary crossing from towards
orientation to an away orientation which occurred during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days. There is a
possibility, however, for some isolated active periods on the third
and fourth days as a coronal hole will be rotating into favorable
position at that time.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 05 Aug au 07 Aug
| Classe M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Classe X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 04 Aug 151 Prévisionnel 05 Aug-07 Aug 150/145/145 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 04 Aug 167
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 03 Aug 011/020 Estimé Afr/Ap 04 Aug 015/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug 010/010-010/010-012/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 05 Aug au 07 Aug
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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