Affichage des archives de dimanche, 28 juillet 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jul 28 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 209 publié à 2200Z le 28 Jul 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 39
(S15W04) produced an M2/Sf flare at 28/0035 UTC as well as
occasional C-class flares. No significant changes occurred within
Region 39. It remained large and magnetically complex with strong,
persistent delta configurations within its leading and trailing
spots. Region 44 (S21W11) produced isolated C-class flares during
the period. Slight decay was noted in the leading and trailing
portions of the region. However, it became slightly more
magnetically complex as new flux emerged that strengthened the delta
within its intermediate spots. Region 50 (S07E09) was in a rapid
growth phase and produced isolated subflares. New Regions 52
(N09E17), 53 (S17E24), and 54 (S21E70) were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. M-class flares are likely from Regions 39
and 44. Either region could produce a major flare during the period.
Region 50 could produce an isolated M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 27-2100Z au 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels,
possibly due to a weak negative-polarity high-speed stream. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained
enhanced and continued to gradually decrease toward background
levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
A geomagnetic field disturbance
is expected to begin early on 29 July and continue into 30 July in
response to the M8/halo-CME event of 26 July. Active to major storm
levels are possible during this disturbance. Field activity is
expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 31 July. Region
39 or 44 may produce a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 29 Jul au 31 Jul
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 28 Jul 239 Prévisionnel 29 Jul-31 Jul 245/245/240 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 28 Jul 165
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 27 Jul 011/019 Estimé Afr/Ap 28 Jul 010/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 025/030-018/020-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 29 Jul au 31 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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