Affichage des archives de mardi, 23 juillet 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jul 23 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 204 publié à 2200Z le 23 Jul 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 39 (S15E59) produced
an X4/2b event at 23/0035 UTC with associated Type II and Type IV
radio sweeps and an 1800 sfu Tenflare. A full-halo CME was visible
in the SOHO/LASCO imagery with this event. This region now exceeds
900 millionths of white light area with a magnetic delta
configuration. Another region of interest is Region 36 (S07W28).
It also exceeds 900 millionths of white light with a magnetic
beta-gamma configuration. Two new regions were numbered today as
Regions 43 (N12E56) and 44 (S19E57).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 36 and 39 both have potential to produce
isolated major events.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 22-2100Z au 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Isolated active
to minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event which began at 22/0655 UTC
continues with the tentative maximum of 28 pfu at 23/1025 UTC. The
energetic electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit were at high
levels today.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 24 July. Minor storm conditions
are expected on 25 July with active to minor conditions on 26 July.
These conditions are anticipated due to the X-class event observed
today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue
for most of the period. The energetic electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit are expected to remain at high levels for the
next several days.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 24 Jul au 26 Jul
| Classe M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 99% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 23 Jul 198 Prévisionnel 24 Jul-26 Jul 195/195/200 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 23 Jul 162
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 22 Jul 012/020 Estimé Afr/Ap 23 Jul 015/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 015/015-030/040-020/030
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 24 Jul au 26 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 50% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 40% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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