Affichage des archives de mardi, 16 juillet 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jul 16 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 197 publié à 2200Z le 16 Jul 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 30
(N19W12) produced an M1 X-ray flare at 15/2132 UTC associated with a
460 sfu Tenflare. Region 30 also produced C-class flares during the
period. It continued to grow during the period and is now around
1500 millionths in area. It remained magnetically complex with
multiple magnetic delta configurations within its interior spots. A
full-halo CME was visible in SOHO/LASCO imagery beginning around
16/1600 UTC. Flare activity in Region 30 may have been the source
for this CME. Region 36 (S07E64) produced isolated subflares during
the period. It is still too close to the east limb for a detailed
analysis, but appeared to be moderate in size and complexity. New
Region 37 (N17E74) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
at mostly moderate levels. Region 30 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing another major flare during
the period. Region 36 could produce an isolated M-class flare during
the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 15-2100Z au 16-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geosynchronous orbit at
16/1750 UTC following yesterday's X3/3b flare. The greater than 10
MeV flux at the close of the period was 32 pfu and gradually
increasing.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to unsettled to minor storm levels during 17 -
18 July in anticipation of a CME passage associated with the X3/3b
flare of 15 July. The shock is expected to arrive around midday
tomorrow. Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to
unsettled levels on 19 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to peak on 17 July then slowly decay through the rest of
the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 17 Jul au 19 Jul
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Classe X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 16 Jul 172 Prévisionnel 17 Jul-19 Jul 180/185/185 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 16 Jul 161
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/009 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 025/030-020/020-008/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 17 Jul au 19 Jul
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 15% | 05% |
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