Affichage des archives de mardi, 21 mai 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 May 21 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 141 publié à 2200Z le 21 May 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's largest event was a C4/Sf from Region 9960 (N14E35). A
comparison of white light and magnetogram data indicate that this
region has a small delta configuration. Region 9961 (N14E35) also
produced some C-class subflares today and shows a compact delta in
the leading part of the group. Region 9957 (N09E08) continues to be
the largest group on the disk and also possesses a delta. However,
this region was quiet and stable today, and is beginning to show
signs of decay.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. The most likely sources for
energetic flare activity are 9957 and 9961, although 9960 could
contribute an isolated M-class event. There is a slight chance for
an X-class flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 20-2100Z au 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was one
period of active conditions from 0600-0900 UTC at high latitudes.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the next three
days. There is a slight chance for some isolated active periods on
day two (due to the CME of 19/2026 UTC) and on day three due to
possible coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 22 May au 24 May
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 21 May 186 Prévisionnel 22 May-24 May 180/180/175 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 21 May 184
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 20 May 008/014 Estimé Afr/Ap 21 May 008/010 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 005/010-012/012-012/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 22 May au 24 May
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 35% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 20% | 10% |
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