Affichage des archives de samedi, 20 avril 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Apr 20 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 110 publié à 2200Z le 20 Apr 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Most
of today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares. The
largest of these was a C4/Sf from Region 9912 at 1548 UTC. Region
9912 showed significant growth during the past 24 hours and is a
D-type sunspot region. Region 9906 (S14W79) continues to be the
largest group on the disk and is beginning to cross the west limb.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event
sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 19-2100Z au 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels at
mid-latitudes and was active to severe storm at high latitudes. The
peak of the magnetic storm occurred from 0000-0900 UTC in
association with strong transient solar wind flow. The level of
geomagnetic activity weakened to mostly active during the last nine
hours, consistent with the slow return of solar wind flow to nominal
levels.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 24 hours as the
current disturbance subsides. Conditions should be mostly unsettled
by the second day, and quiet to unsettled by the third day. There is
a possibility for enhancement of greater than 2 MeV electrons during
the next 24-36 hours due to the current high solar wind speeds.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 21 Apr au 23 Apr
| Classe M | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 20 Apr 177 Prévisionnel 21 Apr-23 Apr 170/170/170 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 20 Apr 200
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 19 Apr 036/044 Estimé Afr/Ap 20 Apr 040/060 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 015/020-010/010-007/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 21 Apr au 23 Apr
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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