Affichage des archives de vendredi, 22 mars 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Mar 22 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 081 publié à 2200Z le 22 Mar 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9866 (S10W96) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 22/1114 UTC
as it crossed the west limb. The flare was associated with a halo
CME and a proton event at greater than 10 MeV. Region 9866 was in a
slow decay phase during the last few days of its passage. Region
9878 (N08E54) produced a C8 X-ray flare at 22/0618 UTC. Minor growth
may have occurred in this region. Region 9871 (S20W47) retained
minor magnetic complexity near its leader spots, but was relatively
stable. New Regions 9881 (S05W08) and 9882 (N15E74) were numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated, low-level
M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 21-2100Z au 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A
greater than 10 MeV proton event began at geo-synchronous orbit at
22/2020 UTC in the wake of today's long-duration M1 flare. The event
was in progress and slowly increasing at the close of the period
with a reading of 10.5 pfu at 22/2100 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. However, there will be a chance for brief active levels on
25 March in response to today's CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event is expected to end early on 23 March.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 23 Mar au 25 Mar
| Classe M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Classe X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 22 Mar 172 Prévisionnel 23 Mar-25 Mar 170/165/165 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 22 Mar 212
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 21 Mar 005/008 Estimé Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/008 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 23 Mar au 25 Mar
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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