Affichage des archives de mardi, 19 février 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 050 publié à 2200Z le 19 Feb 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 18-2100Z au 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 20 Feb au 22 Feb
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 19 Feb 189 Prévisionnel 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 19 Feb 222
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009 Estimé Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 20 Feb au 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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