Affichage des archives de samedi, 12 janvier 2002
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2002 Jan 12 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 012 publié à 2200Z le 12 Jan 2002IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate due to four M-class
events during the past 24 hours. Region 9775 (S05E30) produced three
of these: an M1/Sf at 0322 UTC, an M1/1n at 1519 UTC, and an M1/Sf
at 1929 UTC. The region has not changed size significantly, but
appears to be active due to the emergence of new magnetic flux. The
group currently has a relatively complex magnetic configuration
(beta-gamma). The fourth M-class event was an M3 at 1843 UTC: this
event was associated with erupting prominence activity on the west
limb near S17. Region 9773 (N15W46) continues to be the largest
sunspot group on the disk. This group did not show much change and
managed to produce a few subflares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9773, 9775, and 9778 are the most likely sources
for M-class flares. There continues to be a slight chance for a
major flare or proton producing flare from Region 9773.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 11-2100Z au 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. The enhanced level of activity was due to continued effects
from a coronal hole associated high speed solar wind stream. The
solar wind velocity showed an overall decreasing trend today,
suggesting that the coronal hole effects should not last much
longer. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 10/2045
UTC continues in progress: flux levels decayed throughout the day
and had reached 16.1 PFU at forecast issue time.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels for the next two
days as the current enhanced solar wind should subside soon. Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected by day three. LASCO observations do
not show any CMEs to be associated with today's solar flare
activity.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 13 Jan au 15 Jan
| Classe M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 50% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 12 Jan 233 Prévisionnel 13 Jan-15 Jan 235/240/240 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 12 Jan 224
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 11 Jan 012/021 Estimé Afr/Ap 12 Jan 015/015 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan 012/012-012/010-005/008
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 13 Jan au 15 Jan
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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