Visualisation de l'archive de vendredi 14 décembre 2001

Rapport d'activité solaire

Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Dec 14 2200 UTC
Fait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com

Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique

SDF numéro 348 publié à 2200Z le 14 Dec 2001

IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest event was a long duration M4/2n flare from Region 9733 (N14W10) at 14/1954 UTC. This event may have produced an earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) due to its near central meridian location. Images from the SOHO/LASCO spacecraft were not available at the time of this forecast. If an earth-directed, full-halo cme was created by this flare, its impact on earth would be approximately 40 to 60 hours from the time of origin. Region 9733 continues to maintain its size and magnetic complexity. Region 9727 (S21W77) also remained active during the period, producing one M-class flare and several optical subflares. An M3 flare with an associated Type II radio sweep (approx. velocity of 707 km/s), and an impressive CME was observed at 14/0913 UTC. The originating source appears to be just beyond the east limb as loop prominences were visible on the east limb at N06, from 14/0938 to 1035 UTC. The resulting CME is primarily eastward directed and should not be geoeffective. The noon Penticton 10 cm flux was estimated at 217 sfu as the actual measurement was enhanced due to the M3/2N flare.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high levels. Regions 9727 and 9733 are both capable of producing major flares. Region 9727 will rotate over the western limb on 15 December. The region that produced the M3 flare and CME should rotate onto the disk during the first day of the forecast period.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 13-2100Z au 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions early on the first day. Active conditions are expected late on the first day and into the second day. These active conditions will be caused by a glancing blow from a CME that originated from an X6/3b flare on 13 December. Conditions should return to quiet to unsettled levels on day three.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 15 Dec au 17 Dec
Classe M80%70%70%
Classe X20%15%15%
Proton20%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
  Observé       14 Dec 217
  Prévisionnel   15 Dec-17 Dec  220/210/200
  Moyenne des 90 derniers jours        14 Dec 218
V. Indice géomagnetique A
  Observé Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/004
  Estimé     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/005
  Prévisionnel    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  015/015-025/025-015/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 15 Dec au 17 Dec
A. Latitudes moyennes
Actif30%30%20%
Tempête mineure20%20%10%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%01%
B. Hautes latitudes
Actif40%45%25%
Tempête mineure25%30%15%
Tempête majeure/sévère10%10%05%

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