Affichage des archives de jeudi, 13 décembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Dec 13 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 347 publié à 2200Z le 13 Dec 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9733 (N14E04) produced
an X6.2/3b flare at 13/1430 UTC. This event also produced associated
Type II and IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). This region is continuing to grow more complex, developing a
near horizontal inversion line in its trailing portions. Region 9727
(S21W66) was also quite active during the period, producing three
M-class flares. Region 9727 showed continued growth in size and
complexity during the period. Regions 9727 and 9733 both retain
beta-gamma-delta magnetic classifications. Three new spot groups
were numbered today: 9739 (S13W02), 9740 (S06E56), and 9741
(N07E72).
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with isolated M-class flares likely. There
will also be a chance for a major flare from Regions 9727 or 9733.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 12-2100Z au 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated
unsettled period at 12/21-2400 UTC.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on the first day of
the forecast period. The CME produced by the X6.2 flare should
impact earth late on the second day. The impact is expected to
produce active conditions on the second and third days. Imagery from
the LASCO/SOHO spacecraft show that most of the CME is directed in a
predominately Northerly direction, hence the expected effect on
Earth should be significantly less than if the CME was more directly
aimed toward Earth.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 14 Dec au 16 Dec
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 70% |
| Classe X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 13 Dec 220 Prévisionnel 14 Dec-16 Dec 220/220/210 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 13 Dec 218
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/012 Estimé Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/007 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 012/015-020/020-025/025
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 14 Dec au 16 Dec
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 40% | 45% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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