Affichage des archives de mercredi, 7 novembre 2001
Rapport d'activité solaire
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Rapport d'activité solaire et géophysique 2001 Nov 07 2200 UTCFait par le NOAA © SWPC et adapté par SpaceWeatherLive.com
Rapport de l'USAF/NOAA sur l'activité solaire et géophysique
SDF numéro 311 publié à 2200Z le 07 Nov 2001IA. Analyse des régions solaires actives et activité du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z Activity increased to high levels. Region 9690 (S17E45)
produced an M5/1n flare at 07/2001 UTC associated with relatively
minor centimetric radio bursts. This region showed no significant
changes, but remained large and magnetically complex. It also
produced numerous flares including three low-level M-class. Region
9684 (N06W68) was stable as it approached the west limb, but
remained magnetically complex. Region 9687 (S20W02) also showed a
complex magnetic structure, but was quiet during the period. New
Regions 9691 (N07E64), 9692 (N07W10), 9693 (N11E03), and 9694
(N14E79) were numbered. Today's Penticton noon 10.7 cm radio flux
reading of 269 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 230
SFU was more reflective of the current state of the Sun.
IB. Prévisions d'activité solaire
Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. M-class flares are expected. There will be a chance
for isolated major flare activity from Regions 9684, 9687, and 9690.
IIA. Résumé de l'activité géophysique du 06-2100Z au 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels through 07/0600 UTC, then decreased to mostly quiet to
unsettled levels for the remainder of the period as CME effects
subsided. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began on 04
November ended at 06/2315 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
that began on 04 November continued. The polar cap absortion event
continued as well.
IIB. Prévision de l'activité géophysique
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with brief active
intervals possible during the first half of the period. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on 09 November. The
polar cap absorption event is expected to end early on 09 November.
III. Probabilité d'éruption solaire du 08 Nov au 10 Nov
| Classe M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Classe X | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 90% | 30% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Flux Penticton 10.7 cm
Observé 07 Nov 269 Prévisionnel 08 Nov-10 Nov 230/230/220 Moyenne des 90 derniers jours 07 Nov 208
V. Indice géomagnetique A
Observé Afr/Ap 06 Nov 060/112 Estimé Afr/Ap 07 Nov 018/020 Prévisionnel Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 012/012-012/012-010/010
VI. Probabilités d'activité géomagnétique du 08 Nov au 10 Nov
| A. Latitudes moyennes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tempête mineure | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Hautes latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Actif | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tempête mineure | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tempête majeure/sévère | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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